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Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Shoulder Dystocia in Pregnancies Without Suspected Macrosomia Using Fetal
Can Ozan Ulusoy1, Ahmet Kurt2, Ayşe Gizem Yıldız3
1Department of Perinatology, Ankara Etlik City Hospital, Ankara 06170, Turkey.
Objective: Shoulder dystocia (ShD) is a rare but serious obstetric emergency associated with significant neonatal morbidity. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of machine learning (ML) models based on fetal biometric ratios and clinical characteristics for the identification of ShD in pregnancies without clinical suspicion of macrosomia. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study including 284 women (84 ShD cases and 200 controls) who underwent spontaneous vaginal delivery between 37 and 42 weeks of gestation. All participants had an estimated fetal weight (EFW) below the 90th percentile according to Hadlock reference curves. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on maternal and neonatal parameters, and statistically significant variables (p < 0.05) were used to construct adjusted odds ratio (aOR) models. Supervised ML models-Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB)-were trained and tested to assess predictive accuracy. Performance metrics included AUC-ROC, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1-score. Results: The BPD/AC ratio and AC/FL ratio markedly enhanced the prediction of ShD. When added to other features in RF models, the BPD/AC ratio got an AUC of 0.884 (95% CI: 0.802-0.957), a sensitivity of 68%, and a specificity of 83%. On the other hand, the AC/FL ratio, along with other factors, led to an AUC of 0.896 (95% CI: 0.805-0.972), 68% sensitivity, and 90% specificity. Conclusions: In pregnancies without clinical suspicion of macrosomia, ML models integrating fetal biometric ratios with maternal and labor-related factors significantly improved the prediction of ShD. These models may support clinical decision-making in low-risk deliveries where ShD is often unexpected.
Objective: Shoulder dystocia (ShD) is a rare but serious obstetric emergency associated with significant neonatal morbidity. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of machine learning (ML) models based on fetal biometric ratios and clinical characteristics for the identification of ShD in pregnancies without clinical suspicion of macrosomia. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study including 284 women (84 ShD cases and 200 controls) who underwent spontaneous vaginal delivery between 37 and 42 weeks of gestation. All participants had an estimated fetal weight (EFW) below the 90th percentile according to Hadlock reference curves. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on maternal and neonatal parameters, and statistically significant variables (p < 0.05) were used to construct adjusted odds ratio (aOR) models. Supervised ML models-Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB)-were trained and tested to assess predictive accuracy. Performance metrics included AUC-ROC, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1-score. Results: The BPD/AC ratio and AC/FL ratio markedly enhanced the prediction of ShD. When added to other features in RF models, the BPD/AC ratio got an AUC of 0.884 (95% CI: 0.802-0.957), a sensitivity of 68%, and a specificity of 83%. On the other hand, the AC/FL ratio, along with other factors, led to an AUC of 0.896 (95% CI: 0.805-0.972), 68% sensitivity, and 90% specificity. Conclusions: In pregnancies without clinical suspicion of macrosomia, ML models integrating fetal biometric ratios with maternal and labor-related factors significantly improved the prediction of ShD. These models may support clinical decision-making in low-risk deliveries where ShD is often unexpected.
