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Estimating the Opportunity for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer Using Individual-Patient Data from a Large Randomized Controlled Trial

  • 0Duke University, Durham, United States.
Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology +

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August 14, 2025

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August 14, 2025

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Ovarian cancer screening effectiveness varies by cancer type and method. Multimodal screening (MMS) and ultrasound screening (USS) show different detection windows for high-grade serous cancers versus other types.

Area Of Science

  • Oncology
  • Screening Technologies
  • Biostatistics

Background

  • The UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) evaluated multimodal screening (MMS) and transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS) for ovarian cancer (OC).
  • The trial did not find a reduction in OC mortality with either screening method compared to no screening.
  • UKCTOCS data offer a valuable resource for understanding OC interception opportunities.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To estimate ovarian cancer natural history using Bayesian inference.
  • To quantify the preclinical detectable phase (PCDP) for different OC subtypes and screening modalities.

Main Methods

  • Utilized Bayesian inference on individual screening and cancer diagnosis records from the UKCTOCS trial.
  • Analyzed data from 199,499 women, including 674,806 screens and 2,025 OC diagnoses.
  • Compared PCDP for high-grade serous cancers (HGSCs) and non-HGSCs across MMS and USS arms.

Main Results

  • The estimated PCDP for HGSCs was 1.7 years, significantly shorter than 7.8 years for non-HGSCs.
  • PCDP for HGSCs was longer with MMS (2.2 years) than USS (0.8 years).
  • PCDP for non-HGSCs was shorter with MMS (2.7 years) than USS (8.2 years).

Conclusions

  • The window for intercepting ovarian cancer is highly dependent on histological subtype and the screening modality used.
  • Enhancing early detection benefits requires extending the interception window by combining different screening tests.