EPA model estimates and waste characterization studies: US paper disposal dynamics

Modern economies produce substantial quantities of municipal solid waste (MSW); plastics and food waste currently hold great attention. However, in 2018, paper was the largest element of generated MSW (23.1%) in the United States (US), according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In the US, municipal solid waste composition at the national and regional scales is typically estimated in two distinct ways: Material Flow Models and Waste Characterization Studies (WCS). This study describes the overall paper waste disposal in the United States, based on the EPA model outputs from 1987 to 2022. Two paper subsets, old newspaper (ONP) and corrugated cardboard (OCC) were selected, and disposal data were extracted from 299 US WCS and compared to EPA data from 1973 to 2018, measured by percentage, quantities, and rates (kg/p/y). The overall data patterns were substantially different, and the full-period regressions for overall paper and corrugated cardboard and segmented regressions for 2000-2018 for all three data sets were also significantly different. WCS disposal estimates exceeded 2018 EPA estimates by 25.5 million tonnes for all paper, 0.2 million tonnes for newspaper, and 10.5 million tonnes for corrugated cardboard. Currently, EPA data are not only used for solid waste planning and impact assessments but also to drive important climate change models. Hence, it is important to use the best possible data sets to make informed policy decisions, especially for climate change avoidance and mitigation.