[Estimation of Terminal CO₂ Emission Reduction Potential in Shaanxi Province Based on LMDI and System Dynamics]

The extended logarithmic mean Dee's index （LMDI） model and system dynamics （SD） model were used to explore the influencing factors of CO₂ emissions in Shaanxi Province from 2007 to 2021 and to predict the emission reduction potential of Shaanxi Province from 2022 to 2035. The results showed that： ① The CO₂ emissions in Shaanxi Province increased from 103.14 Mt in 2007 to 336.87 Mt in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.14%, and the carbon intensity of various sectors generally showed a downward trend. ② In the LMDI decomposition results, the growth of per capita GDP had the greatest promoting effect on CO₂ emissions, followed by that of energy structure and civilian vehicle ownership. Energy intensity had the greatest inhibitory effect on CO₂ emissions, followed by that of industrial structure, residents' energy intensity, and average vehicle output value. ③ Under the baseline scenario, CO₂ emissions in Shaanxi Province will continue to grow until 2035, and its emissions will be 1.75 times that of 2021. ④ Under comprehensive emission reduction measures, the region could achieve carbon emission peak in 2030. Under the baseline scenario, the carbon intensity of Shaanxi Province in 2030 will be reduced by 71.67% compared with that in 2007. ⑤ Among the single emission reduction policies, the economic scale scenario was the most effective, followed by the structural optimization scenario. In addition, the energy intensity optimization and new energy vehicle scenarios have less potential. This study provides effective data support for Shaanxi Province to formulate low-carbon policies, promote carbon emission reduction, and achieve carbon emission peak as soon as possible.