Impacts of inter-basin water transfer and land use changes on water yield service supply-demand risk
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) can mitigate water scarcity risks in semi-arid regions, but land use changes significantly impact water yield service (WYS) dynamics. Urbanization drives demand, necessitating tailored strategies for water security.
Area Of Science
- Environmental Science
- Hydrology
- Sustainable Development
Background
- Semi-arid regions face critical water yield service (WYS) supply-demand imbalances, challenging sustainable development.
- Inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are common solutions, but their long-term effects on WYS dynamics under changing land use are not well understood.
Purpose Of The Study
- To assess future water security risks in the Fen River Basin, China, by integrating land use simulations and ecosystem service modeling.
- To quantify the impacts of land use change and IBWT on WYS supply-demand dynamics under different development scenarios.
Main Methods
- Land use changes from 2020-2030 were projected using the PLUS model under natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and economic growth (EG) scenarios.
- Water yield service (WYS) supply was quantified using the InVEST model, and demand was assessed using socioeconomic and land use data.
- A risk assessment framework incorporating IBWT effects and Geodetector analysis identified key drivers of WYS dynamics.
Main Results
- Under the economic growth (EG) scenario, rapid urbanization (cropland to artificial land conversion) could increase WYS demand by 12.0 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup> by 2030.
- IBWT implementation reduced high-risk areas by 18.7%, primarily in midstream urban zones, with limited impact (0.7%) in downstream regions.
- Land use change (q=0.68) and IBWT (q=0.31) were dominant drivers; artificial land expansion impacted upstream areas, while temperature and topography influenced midstream risks.
Conclusions
- Scenario-specific strategies are crucial, including controlling urban sprawl, diversifying water sources, and improving policy coherence to manage water security.
- The integrated modeling approach offers valuable insights for balancing water security and ecological sustainability in water-stressed basins like the Fen River Basin.
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