Assessing biodiversity trends in a quasi-permanent non-equilibrium state

The 'equilibrium assumption' underlying biodiversity trends assessments in response to environmental changes is rarely challenged, the traditional assumption being that biodiversity is in an equilibrium state with its contemporary drivers. Existing non-equilibrium biodiversity frameworks still rely on the assumption that biodiversity is, at a given moment in time, in an equilibrium state with its contemporary drivers. In this opinion article we consider multiple trajectories of changes due to long-term disturbances that push biodiversity into a quasi-permanent non-equilibrium state. We propose a conceptual framework based on the use of temporal influence functions that can be integrated into a wide range of ecological models. The complete paradigm shift we provide can hindcast past, and project future, non-equilibrium biodiversity trends.