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Emerging threats to Antarctic conservation.

Zachary T Carter1,2,3, Michael Bode4,5, Steven L Chown6,7

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Antarctica faces new conservation threats like pandemics and extreme weather due to global changes. Current governance may be insufficient to protect its unique environment and climate role.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Conservation Biology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Antarctica, historically viewed as an untouched sanctuary, is now facing escalating and interconnected conservation issues.
  • The continent's vastness and remoteness complicate threat assessment and prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify emerging conservation challenges in Antarctica using strategic foresight.
  • To evaluate the capacity of the Antarctic Treaty system to address these new threats.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted a global horizon scan involving 131 experts from 42 countries.
  • Synthesized expert insights to identify and categorize emerging conservation challenges.

Main Results:

  • Identified ten emerging conservation challenges across six thematic categories.
  • Key issues include extreme precipitation, emerging animal and human pathogens, security threats, reduced cooperation, and potential agricultural expansion.
  • Highlighted that some challenges arise from long-standing processes, while others are novel global disruptions.

Conclusions:

  • Existing Antarctic governance mechanisms show substantial limitations in addressing these emerging challenges.
  • There is a critical need to reassess current governance to safeguard Antarctic ecosystems and their global climate functions.