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Ex-post impact analysis of the Philippine pig repopulation program.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Economics
  • Time Series Analysis
  • Livestock Management

Background:

  • The Philippine swine industry faced significant challenges due to African Swine Fever (ASF).
  • The Integrated National Swine Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion (INSPIRE) program was launched to address these challenges.
  • Focus was placed on three key regions: Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and Davao Region.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the impact of the INSPIRE swine repopulation program on pig production.
  • To assess the financial viability of the program's interventions.
  • To provide recommendations for future swine industry recovery efforts.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modeling for forecasting pig production.
  • Conducted financial analyses, including cost-benefit analysis and net present value (NPV).
  • Compared pre- and post-program implementation data, including scenarios with and without ASF outbreaks.

Main Results:

  • Central Luzon and CALABARZON showed significant positive impacts from the INSPIRE program, averting potential industry collapse.
  • The program's financial indicators (Cost-Benefit Ratio, NPV) were favorable, indicating success.
  • The Davao Region experienced a lesser impact due to a later onset of ASF.

Conclusions:

  • The INSPIRE program has been effective in reviving swine production in key Philippine regions.
  • Continued and increased funding for swine repopulation programs is recommended beyond 2025.
  • This study pioneers the use of time series SARIMA forecasting for evaluating livestock repopulation programs in the Philippines.