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Assessing glacier changes and hydrological impacts in the upper Indus Basin under CMIP6 climate scenarios
Tariq Abdullah1,2, Jasia Bashir1,2, Shakil Ahmad Romshoo3,2
1Department of Planning and Geomatics, Islamic University of Science and Technology, Kashmir, 1-University Avenue, Awantipora, Jammu and Kashmir 192122, India.
Iscience
|August 18, 2025
Summary
Himalayan glaciers are crucial for the Upper Indus Basin. Projections show significant glacier area loss by the 2080s under climate change scenarios, threatening regional water security.
Area of Science:
- Glaciology
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
Background:
- Himalayan glaciers are critical water sources for the Upper Indus Basin.
- Understanding future glacier changes is essential for water resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify future glacier mass and area changes in the Jhelum sub-basin.
- To project the impact of climate change on glacier-fed streamflow.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 13 bias-corrected CMIP6 climate models under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.
- Employed a temperature-index melt model with field-validated glacier data.
- Simulated glacier response to projected climate forcing.
Main Results:
- Projected glacier area losses of 34.7 ± 12.1% (SSP245) and 55.3 ± 16.1% (SSP585) by the 2080s.
- Anticipated significant decline in glacier streamflow.
- Indicated severe threats to regional water availability, agriculture, and hydropower.
Conclusions:
- Glacier dynamics must be integrated into long-term climate adaptation strategies.
- Robust estimates of glacier change are vital for water resource planning in the Upper Indus Basin.
- Future water security in the region is at risk due to projected glacier melt.
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