Analysis on effectiveness of subway epidemic prevention measures considering subway passenger flow

Since its discovery in 2019, the characteristics of COVID-19 have also changed, increasing pressure on subway authorities to control the spread of the disease. Most scientific contributions discussed the correlation between the movement of people in the subway and the spread of the virus, and provided ways to control the spread of the virus in the subway. However, in order to balance production and safety under the easing of the epidemic, it is necessary to establish a relatively common method to evaluate the effectiveness of subway epidemic prevention management measures. This paper investigates subway ridership data after the epidemic has eased, taking the subway of Z city as the case study. SEIA model, adapted from the SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) framework, was developed. The model divides infected people into symptomatic infections and asymptomatic infections, and simulates the movement of subway passengers to show the spread of COVID-19 in subways. In this study, the SEIA model was used to simulate the results of the three protection measures implemented by the subway management department of Z city, namely social distancing, reducing station stops and vaccination. The results showed that the measures of vaccination, while the measures of reducing station stops were the least effective.