Profiling Vulnerability in Youth and Predicting Educational Attainment in Young Adulthood

Educational attainment is associated with higher rates of employment, income, and standard of living; yet leaving secondary school before completion of the final year remains common, particularly for youth experiencing disadvantage. This study aimed to identify key indicators of vulnerability, derived from a proposed framework of child disadvantage, that predicted early school leaving in a state-representative sample of Australian youth.

Data comprised 2884 participants (51.7% female; 48.3% male) across three age cohorts from the Australian arm of the longitudinal cohort study, the International Youth Development Study (IYDS). The relationship between level of vulnerability in adolescence (11-15 years old in Wave 1; 2002) and subsequent early school leaving (19-23 years old in Wave 7; 2010) was examined, controlling for individual, family, school, and community covariates.

Latent class analyses identified four vulnerability groups ('low,' 'normative,' 'welfare,' and 'high'), differentiated by sociodemographic factors (low), receipt of welfare support (welfare), and family and community risk factors (high). Multivariate regression analyses indicated greater vulnerability in adolescence (11-15 years old) predicted an increased odds of subsequent early school leaving, with the highest vulnerability group 40% more likely to leave school before completing Year 12, relative to the lowest vulnerability group (OR = 1.40; 95% CI [1.27, 1.53], p < 0.001).

Sociodemographic, geographical, and risk indicators, selected using a multidimensional framework of child disadvantage, predicted increased vulnerability for early school leaving. Prevention and intervention initiatives should select comprehensive multidimensional indicators to prioritise vulnerable youth with the aim of improving educational equity.