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Climate variability amplifies the need for vector-borne disease outbreak preparedness.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Internal climate variability significantly impacts vector-borne disease risk. This natural climate fluctuation can accelerate the emergence of suitable conditions for disease transmission, even before climate change effects become apparent.

Keywords:
climate variabilityclimate-sensitive infectious diseasepublic health policyvector-borne disease

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Epidemiology
  • Climate modeling

Background:

  • Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a growing threat, particularly in regions not currently experiencing outbreaks but vulnerable to climate change.
  • Predicting future VBD transmission requires understanding climate suitability, yet current models often overlook key sources of uncertainty.
  • Internal climate variability (ICV) is a rarely considered factor in climate-VBD transmission studies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the impact of internal climate variability (ICV) on future climate suitability for vector-borne disease transmission.
  • To highlight ICV as a critical, yet often neglected, source of uncertainty in climate-VBD modeling.
  • To inform outbreak preparedness by revealing potentially earlier emergence of VBD risk.

Main Methods:

  • Climate modeling incorporating emissions scenarios, climate model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability (ICV).
  • Analysis of climate suitability for VBD transmission under different future climate projections.
  • Evaluation of the contribution of ICV to overall uncertainty in climate suitability predictions.

Main Results:

  • Internal climate variability (ICV) represents a significant source of uncertainty in predicting future climate suitability for VBD transmission.
  • ICV can cause suitable climate conditions for VBD transmission to emerge in new locations much sooner than predicted by climate change alone.
  • The influence of ICV on transmission suitability is substantial, even when considering projections decades into the future.

Conclusions:

  • Internal climate variability (ICV) must be incorporated into climate-VBD models for accurate outbreak preparedness.
  • Ignoring ICV can lead to underestimation of the timing and extent of VBD risk under changing climate conditions.
  • Proactive public health strategies are needed to address the accelerated emergence of VBD transmission risks due to ICV.