[HFA-ICOS score in predicting cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction among breast cancer and lymphoma patients]

Objective: To explore the predictive efficacy of the HFA-ICOS score for cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD) in Chinese patients with breast cancer and lymphoma. Methods: This study was a single-center retrospective cohort study which included patients with breast cancer and lymphoma who were treated with anthracyclines from February 2018 to February 2025 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University. Patients were evaluated at baseline with cardiac biomarkers and echocardiography, including left ventricular ejection fraction and global longitudinal strain of the left ventricle. After anthracycline therapy, they were followed up at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Data involved biomarkers and echocardiography were collected to determine whether CTRCD had occurred. The patients were categorized into low-risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk, and very-high-risk groups using the HFA-ICOS scoring model. The cumulative probability of CTRCD under different HFA-ICOS risk stratification was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The effect of HFA-ICOS risk stratification on CTRCD was assessed using an univariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. The predictive efficacy of the HFA-ICOS model and its utility in clinical decision-making were assessed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curves at each time point. Results: A total of 286 patients, aged 55 (44, 61) years, were enrolled, of whom 33 (11.5%) cases were male. And 113 (39.5%) patients developed CTRCD during a median follow-up time of 111 (70, 210) days. HFA-ICOS risk stratification showed that 228 (79.7%) were low-risk, 49 (17.1%) were intermediate-risk, and a total of 9 (3.1%) were high-risk and very high-risk. The difference in the occurrence of CTRCD over time between patients with different HFA-ICOS risk stratification was statistically significant (P_log-rank<0.001). Cox proportional regression hazards analysis showed an increased risk of CTRCD development in intermediate-risk (HR=1.95, 95%CI 1.22-3.00, P=0.006) and high-risk and very high-risk patients (HR=4.12, 95%CI 1.66-8.54, P=0.004) compared with low-risk patients. The ROC curves showed that the area under the curve of the HFA-ICOS model predicting CTRCD was 0.532, 0.597, 0.600 and 0.577 at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, respectively. The calibration curves indicated Brier scores of 0.041 (95%CI 0.013-0.067), 0.144 (95%CI 0.115-0.173), 0.232 (95%CI 0.215-0.249) and 0.236 (95%CI 0.220-0.251) at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, correspondingly. The clinical decision curve suggested that clinical intervention may have a net benefit when the risk threshold is between 0.15 and 0.18 at 1 month, between 0.10 and 0.50 at 3 months, and between 0.30 and 0.70 at 6 and 12 months. Conclusion: The HFA-ICOS score could predict the occurrence of CTRCD in patients with breast cancer and lymphoma treated with anthracycline drugs, although its predictive efficacy is limited, and the prediction model requires further validation in a larger population.