Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of carbon storage in the Fuhe river basin, China

The relationship between land use change and regional carbon storage is closely linked. Understanding how land use changes affect regional carbon storage is crucial for maintaining the carbon balance of ecosystems. This study integrated the advantages of the PLUS model, the InVEST model, and the optimal parameter-based geographic detector (OPGD) models to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in land use patterns and carbon storage in the Fuhe River Basin under three scenarios in 2030, and analyze the driving forces of the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. The results show that the following: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the areas of water and construction land in the Fuhe River Basin increased by 28.08 km² and 217.65 km², respectively, while the areas of cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased by 115.33 km², 112.79 km², 88.79 km², and 1.36 km², respectively. (2) Between 1980 and 2020, the total carbon storage in the Fuhe River Basin showed a decreasing trend, with a reduction of 20.39 × 10⁵ t. The main drivers of this decline were the reduction in woodland area and the expansion of construction land. (3) By 2030, carbon storage is projected to continue decreasing under all three scenarios, with the ecological protection scenario showing the most pronounced mitigating effect on the reduction of carbon storage. (4) The spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the Fuhe River Basin is influenced by various factors, including land use intensity, NDVI, elevation, and slope, with land use intensity having the strongest explanatory power, reaching 0.24. This study offers policymakers valuable insights for optimizing ecosystem carbon storage and provides essential guidance for achieving the "dual carbon" goals.