Spatiotemporal changes in habitat quality and driving factors in South Hunan mining urban agglomerations, China

The development of urban agglomerations driven by the mining industry inevitably impacts regional habitat quality. Understanding how habitat quality evolves over time and space, as well as identifying the key driving factors in mining urban agglomerations, is essential for developing sustainable policies and maintaining ecological security. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in habitat quality from 1990 to 2020 via the InVEST model, forecasts habitat quality in 2040 under various development scenarios via the PLUS model, and investigates the factors contributing to these changes. The results revealed that from 1990 to 2020, areas of forestland, cultivated land, and grassland initially increased before declining, whereas areas of construction land and water bodies continuously expanded, with construction land primarily replacing cultivated land and forestland. The average habitat quality ranged from 0.72 to 0.82 during this period, showing an overall increase followed by a decline, with lower habitat quality found in the central areas and higher quality in the surrounding regions. Additionally, habitat quality exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation, with a slow expansion of low-habitat-quality clusters. Under all three development scenarios for 2040, the region is expected to remain dominated by cultivated land and forest, but with a notable expansion of built-up areas compared with that in 2020. Habitat quality is predicted to decrease by 2040, with an increase in worst-grade areas. On the basis of random forest and geodetector analyses, the main drivers of habitat quality are elevation, slope, and population density, with the most significant interactions occurring between population density and elevation, followed by interactions between nighttime light intensity and elevation and between population density and slope. These results suggest that habitat quality in the region is influenced primarily by the interplay of topography, human development, and economic activities. This study provides valuable insights for the construction of an ecological security framework for mining urban agglomerations.