Understanding Bihar's climate risks: a district-level assessment of climate trends, projections, exposure, hazards,...

Bihar, located in eastern India, confronts significant climate change challenges. It illustrates its susceptibility to a range of diverse impacts caused by shifting climatic conditions. This study undertakes a comprehensive analysis of historical climatic trends, projections, and risk assessment at the district level. Through an in-depth examination of maximum temperature and precipitation data spanning 1901 to 2022, the study unveils a consistent upward trajectory in maximum temperatures across all districts, with the most pronounced increase observed in the recent period (1981-2022). Concomitantly, precipitation patterns exhibit a general decline, with ACZ III (A) experiencing the most significant reductions during the same period. Future climate projections based on the IPCC's RCP 4.5 scenario indicate a potential rise in maximum temperatures, exceeding 2 °C in most districts by 2070, accompanied by fluctuations in monsoon and winter precipitation patterns. The risk assessment framework, grounded in the IPCC's AR5, integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability dimensions. The analysis identifies districts facing high to very high risk, particularly in the southwestern, southeastern, and Himalayan Tarai regions. Factors such as floods, heatwaves, droughts, high population density, poverty, and child malnutrition contribute substantially to the overall risk profile. Mitigating these challenges necessitates a multifaceted approach, encompassing targeted interventions tailored to district-specific needs. The study underscores the importance of enhancing adaptive capacity through climate-resilient measures. By elucidating the climate risks faced by Bihar, this research paves the way for informed policymaking and strategic planning, empowering communities to build resilience and secure a sustainable future.