Quantifying evolutionary rescue probabilities upon standing genetic variation and de novo mutations

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Population genetics
• Environmental adaptation

Background:

• Populations face extinction from abrupt environmental changes.
• Evolutionary rescue (ER) offers a potential survival mechanism.
• Understanding ER factors is crucial for predicting species persistence.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the probabilities of evolutionary rescue (ER).
• To investigate the influence of genetic variation and mutation on ER.
• To analyze the impact of environmental change magnitude and trait number on ER.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Fisher's geometric model.
• Employed analytical derivations and stochastic simulations.
• Modeled asexual haploid populations without recombination.

Main Results:

• Quantified ER probabilities under various conditions.
• Demonstrated the interplay between standing genetic variation and de novo mutations.
• Identified mutation effect size and probability as key factors influencing ER likelihood.

Conclusions:

• ER is influenced by the number of traits, environmental change magnitude, and mutation characteristics.
• The study provides a framework beyond single-locus models for understanding ER.
• Results offer insights into the governing factors of population persistence in changing environments.