Analysis of acute glomerulonephritis disease burden and incidence trends in China, 1990-2021

To analyze and discuss the epidemiological characteristics and disease burden of acute glomerulonephritis in China from 1990 to 2021, predict its incidence in China from 2022 to 2036, and provide a reference for developing treatment and prevention strategies.

Data on acute glomerulonephritis in China were collected from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the average annual percentage change and annual percentage change of age-standardized rates, years of life lost due to premature mortality, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the incidence from 1992 to 2021, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort method was used to predict the incidence from 2022 to 2036.

Standardized incidence and mortality rates of acute glomerulonephritis in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, with average annual decreases of 4.157% and 3.861%, respectively. In 2021, the incidence and mortality rates were 7.70 (95% UI 6.55-9.01) and 0.31 (95% UI 0.21-0.40) per 100,000, respectively. The years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years also decreased. The age-period-cohort model indicated increased risk in the 0-14 and 80-99 age groups. The period effect showed a downward trend in risk from 1992 to 2021 but a slight increase since 2017. Birth cohort analysis revealed higher risks for some persons. By 2036, the male incidence may decrease to 7.38 per 100,000 while females may increase to 8.47 per 100,000.

We observed an overall decline in disease burden and risk. However, some age groups remain at risk. We also observed a slight increase since 2012. Future projections suggest rising female incidence. Targeted interventions for high-risk groups like children, adolescents, the elderly, and females are needed to reduce the disease burden.