A novel nomogram for predicting carotid atherosclerosis risks in diabetic patients

Cardiovascular disease remains a leading health issue globally, with atherosclerosis being a significant contributor, particularly in patients with type 2 diabetes who face multiple risk factors. This study aims to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for carotid atherosclerosis specifically in patients with type 2 diabetes, addressing the lack of effective risk-stratification tools.

A retrospective cohort study involving 1,258 patients with type 2 diabetes was conducted. The 880 diabetic patients diagnosed between 2018 and 2021 were divided into a training set (n = 616) and an internal validation set (n = 264) at a 7:3 ratio. An additional 378 patients from 2022 to 2023 were included as an external validation set. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical data were collected. Risk factors were identified using LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression, leading to the development of a nomogram. Model performance was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

The nomogram identified age, smoking, drinking, systolic blood pressure, lipoprotein(a), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and creatinine as independent risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis in diabetic patients. The model demonstrated good discrimination, with area under the curve values of 0.791, 0.725, and 0.721 for the training, internal, and external validation sets, respectively. Calibration curves indicated a strong alignment between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. Decision curve analysis confirmed the model's clinical utility, especially when the threshold probability was above 15%.

The developed nomogram serves as a robust tool for predicting carotid atherosclerosis risk in patients with type 2 diabetes, facilitating early intervention and personalized management strategies in clinical practice.

Not applicable.