Oral and Oropharyngeal Cancer Mortality in Brazil: Estimates and Projections up to 2042

To assess the effect of age-period-birth cohort on mortality rates related to lip/oral and oropharyngeal cancer (LOOPC) in Brazil from 1980 to 2019 and to estimate the future mortality rate for 2042.

Mortality rate per 100 000 inhabitants, and age-standardised mortality rate (ASR) per 100 000 inhabitants were estimated. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to estimate the trends and the annual percent change (APC%). The age-period-cohort effects were calculated using the Poisson regression model. Lee-Carter model was employed to perform projections.

A total of 134 941 deaths were observed. Prais-Winsten regression model revealed a slight upward trend in lip and oral cancer mortality among men (p = 0.04) and women (p = 0.02), as well as in oropharyngeal cancer among men (p = 0.02). Significant age-period-cohort was observed for LOOPC in both sexes (p < 0.01). The risk ratio declined in recent cohorts for men (Both Cancers) but increased for women (Lip/Oral Cancer). Period analysis showed a risk increase for lip/oral cancer in recent periods in both sexes and a decrease for men and women for oropharyngeal cancer. In 2042, mortality projections decrease in lip/oral cancer for men aged between 40 and 60 years and oropharyngeal cancer in men between 35 and 60 years. For women, no significant changes are projected. The model projections mortality rate reveal varied outcomes across the diverse regions of Brazil.

A significant age-period cohort was observed over the 40 years assessed. Projections for 2042 indicated a significant decrease in LOOPC mortality rates for men and no change for women.