Self-efficacy as a predictor of relapse following voluntary cessation of smoking

In a retrospective study 92 subjects who had quit smoking voluntarily one year earlier were classified on the basis of self-report as abstainers or relapsers. Discriminant function analysis of 11 variables showed that a 14-item self-efficacy questionnaire total score was as successful in classifying the subjects as abstainers or relapsers as analyses involving all 11 variables or the best combination of them. In a prospective study 32 subjects were administered the same variables shortly after quitting smoking and before eventual status was known. Using weights derived from the retrospective study the self-efficacy total score predicted the status of all 15 subjects who had relapsed at a four month follow-up while the seven subjects it had predicted would not relapse were still abstaining. At an eight month follow-up the predictive power of the self-efficacy measure was maintained. At both follow-up points the self-efficacy measure proved superior to the other measures. These results suggest that the self-efficacy measure may be used to identify individuals at high risk for relapse after voluntarily quitting smoking; and may enable remedial measures to be applied prior to the decision to quit being taken which would reduce the probability of relapse.