Genetic origins and climate-induced erosion in economically important Asian walnuts

The global climate is undergoing unprecedented changes, posing significant threats to species persistence. However, the spatiotemporal impacts on genetic diversity remain poorly understood, hindering species conservation and management. Walnuts, generally referred to as Juglans regia and J. sigillata, are economically vital in Asia, but little is known about their genetic origins and how the species will be affected by future climate change. Using 31 microsatellites, we genotyped 5282 individuals from 233 populations of walnuts in Asia. We assessed genetic diversity patterns and demographic history and investigated potential future genetic erosion risks. Genetic diversity of walnuts was high in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains. The 2 species diverged during the Pleistocene (around 1.41 Ma BP), and J. regia contained 2 genetic groups (JR1 and JR2). The JR2 group had the lowest diversity and likely arrived in northern China around 9.77 ka BP, perhaps via human transport. The Western Himalaya likely served both as a glacial refugium and the center of origin for J. regia, and the Eastern Himalaya appears to have been the refugium for J. sigillata. The 2 species appear to have hybridized in the Central Himalaya and the Sichuan basin and surroundings, forming two distinct hybrid zones. Our results indicate that genetic diversity will be reduced by up to 9.03% due to range loss under future climate change and dramatic genetic structure turnover in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains. In situ conservation in the Himalaya is essential for safeguarding genetic diversity and adaptive potential in Asian walnuts, while ex situ preservation of genetically unique wild germplasm, coupled with its integration into breeding programs, will enhance climate resilience. The findings advance our understanding of the origin of Asian walnuts and how future climatic change may affect their genetic diversity, offering a model for conservation and breeding strategies in other tree species facing similar threats.