A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Rabies Epidemic and Elimination Challenges - China, 2005-2023

The 2030 global target for eliminating dog-mediated human rabies, jointly proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organizations, presents significant challenges for China. This study analyzes epidemiological trends (2005-2023), forecasts future case numbers, and compares China's progress with elimination strategies from the United States, Japan, and Brazil to optimize national rabies prevention and control approaches.

Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of human rabies cases across China. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was employed to forecast cases for the next two years, with the optimal model selected based on indicators, including the Akaike information criterion.

24,566 human rabies cases were reported in China from 2005 to 2023. Over these 19 years, rabies prevalence shifted from southeastern to northwestern regions. Provincial trends varied significantly: 14 provincial-level administrative divisions, including Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, achieved zero cases; Shandong, Shanxi, and Chongqing experienced a resurgence; Guangxi, Henan, Hunan, and Anhui maintained high endemic levels; while other regions showed a steady decline. The SARIMA (0,1,2)(2,1,1)₁₂ model forecasts 65 cases by 2025, substantially exceeding international case levels during comparable elimination phases.

To achieve the 2030 rabies elimination goal in China, implementing a comprehensive, large-scale dog vaccination strategy is essential within the remaining timeframe.