Axonal Degeneration Across the Alzheimer's Disease Spectrum: A Longitudinal MRI and Fluid Biomarker Study

With global dementia rates rising sharply, there is an urgent need for sensitive biomarkers to detect cognitive changes and predict dementia risk. White matter degeneration, especially axonal loss, is increasingly recognized as an early hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD), but its temporal trajectory and its relationship with cognition have not been established. We utilized a novel MRI-derived Axonal Density Index (ADI) to longitudinally investigate axonal degeneration and cognitive decline in the ADNI cohort. Linear mixed-effects models showed cognitively impaired individuals had lower baseline ADI and faster axonal degeneration compared to cognitively normal subjects. In cognitively impaired individuals, higher baseline ADI predicted slower prospective cognitive deterioration and lower dementia risk, while greater longitudinal ADI declines correlated with cognitive worsening and increased dementia risk. Notably, ADI outperformed cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers of AD pathology in predicting cognitive outcomes. Our original findings position axonal degeneration as an early AD feature and ADI as a promising biomarker for early detection, disease phenotyping and monitoring, and intervention targets.