Deciphering the uncertainties in ecosystem service value: An innovative protocol focused on ecological traits

In the growing assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV), the endeavours to unravel the uncertainties of ESV assessment have been limited, especially those arising from ecological traits (e.g., net primary productivity, precipitation and soil erosion). This study established a novel protocol to capture the uncertainties in ESVs from critical ecological traits over the period 2000-2020 in China, integrating uncertainty analysis into the framework of ESV assessment. The assessment of ESVs remained robust even after considering ecological traits, with values ranging from 3716.27 to 3772.00 billion CNY. Uncertainties in ESVs, influenced by ecological trait changes, reduced by 1.69 % in the first decade but increased by 5.64 % in the later decade. A geographical distribution of ESVs uncertainties was identified, being higher in western provinces compared to eastern ones. The core ecosystem services like material product, hydrological and climate regulate and soil retention, which represent 76.41 % of the total ESV, demonstrated high levels of uncertainty due to the influence of ecological traits. Notably, the contributions of ecological traits to ESV uncertainties displayed hierarchical levels, e.g., the contribution of net primary productivity is 1.34 and 1.70 times greater than that of precipitation and soil erosion, respectively. This study highlights that ecological traits play critical role in driving the assessment of ESVs uncertainties. These findings lend the foundation to integrate these traits into long-term ecosystem management practices.