Projections of the Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis in Mexico from 2020-2040

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can lead to disability and premature death. Knowledge of the RA burden is necessary for strategic healthcare management, resource allocation, and preventive measures. The burden of RA was analyzed with projected rates for 2030 and 2040.

Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and burden of suffering from RA were analyzed using the most recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset for RA from 1990 to 2019. Predictive estimates were calculated using the SPSS Time Series Modeler.

In 2019, approximately 530,000 individuals had RA (64.0% were female, and 35.9% were between 15 and 49 years old). The age-standardized prevalence (ASP) and incidence (ASI) rates were 427.6 and 25.4 cases per 100,000 people, respectively. The Mexican states with the highest ASP, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and years of healthy life lost due to disability rates were Oaxaca, Tlaxcala, and Zacatecas. The national ASP and ASI rates of RA are projected to increase to 465.5 and 27.9 by 2030, and to 518.9 and 30.2 per 100,000 inhabitants by 2040, respectively. In contrast, age-standardized mortality and DALY rates are projected to decline to 1.2 and 77.8 in 2030 and 1.1 and 73.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2040, respectively.

The burden of RA, especially the burden of disability continues to increase. Despite substantial investments in clinical care, research, and public health initiatives, the rate of increase shows no signs of abating. Certain regions of Mexico, such as Oaxaca, Tlaxcala, and Zacatecas, have a disproportionately high burden.