[Exploring the risk factors of reoffending in patients under repeated compulsory treatment]

Introduction: Risk analysis, including the risk of recidivism, is of paramount importance in forensic psychiatry. Objective: The objective of this study is to examine which patterns may indicate an increased risk of recidivism in individuals with mental illness, and to identify factors that may have contributed to repeated court-ordered involuntary treatment. Method: In this retrospective study, authors analyzed the documentation of 301 inpatients, who were discharged from the National Institute of Forensic Psychiatry between 2000 and 2015. Sociodemographic, clinical, and crime-related information was recorded in the study. Results: 5.3% of the patients had previously been in compulsory treatment. Authors identified the following risk factors for re-offending: previous criminal offenses that did not result in compulsory treatment, violence against an official person, being under the influence of alcohol at the time of the crime, older age, the diagnosis of paranoid schizophrenia, and social institutional housing. In the whole sample, authors found 5 person-oriented patterns that were risk factors in offenders suffering from mental illness. 2 of the 5 patterns were characteristic for re-offenders. Discussion: In our representative study, in line with the international literature, we identified a number of sociodemographic, forensic, and clinical variables that were associated with a higher risk of relapse in patients undergoing involuntary treatment. Conclusion: The identified risk factors can be utilized in the development of individualized therapeutic programs and prevention plans. Orv Hetil. 2025; 166(33): 1312–1319.