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Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area
Seyd Teymoor Seydi1, John T Abatzoglou2, Matthew W Jones3
1Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, Boise, ID, USA.
Summary
Human exposure to wildland fires has increased 40% globally, driven by more homes near wildlands. Despite less burned area, increased colocation means greater risk, especially in Africa.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Climate Change
Background:
- Half the global population lives in wildland-urban interfaces.
- Human exposure to wildland fires is a growing concern.
- Wildland fire impacts on human populations are not fully quantified.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify global human exposure to wildland fires from 2002 to 2021.
- To identify drivers of increased human exposure.
- To highlight regional disparities in wildland fire exposure.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of global population data and burned area statistics.
- Assessment of human settlement proximity to wildland fire events.
- Statistical modeling to determine factors influencing exposure.
Main Results:
- Global population exposure to wildland fires increased by 40% from 2002 to 2021.
- Increased colocation of human settlements and fires doubled exposure per unit burned area.
- Africa accounted for 85% of global exposures, despite greater attention on North America, Europe, and Oceania.
Conclusions:
- Wildland fire exposure is increasing due to human settlement patterns, not just burned area.
- Population dynamics contribute significantly to overall exposure.
- Targeted fire resilience strategies are crucial for high-risk regions, particularly in Africa.
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