An ensemble method utilising multiple thinking styles that boosts the wisdom-of inner- crowd effect.

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Decision Science
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• The wisdom of crowds effect, where collective estimates are more accurate than individual ones, can be applied internally ('wisdom of the inner crowd').
• Existing methods for the wisdom of the inner crowd, involving repeated individual estimations, show limited efficacy in improving accuracy.
• There is a need for more effective strategies to harness the wisdom of the inner crowd for better individual judgment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and validate a novel method for simulating the wisdom of the inner crowd effect.
• To enhance the accuracy of individual estimates by assembling multiple independent estimation strategies.
• To demonstrate the practical utility of the proposed method in improving daily estimations.

Main Methods:

• Participants were instructed to provide estimates five times using a method that assembles multiple independent strategies.
• A behavioral experiment was conducted to test the efficacy of the proposed method.
• Mathematical modeling was employed to quantify the effectiveness of the new method.

Main Results:

• The proposed method successfully simulated the wisdom of the inner crowd effect.
• Estimates generated by the new method were significantly more accurate than those from a control group using simple repeated estimations.
• Mathematical modeling indicated the method's effectiveness was equivalent to that of 1.5 individuals.

Conclusions:

• The study introduces an effective method to improve the wisdom of the inner crowd effect.
• This novel approach offers a practical way to enhance the accuracy of individual estimates in various contexts.
• The findings suggest a promising direction for improving decision-making through refined internal crowd wisdom techniques.