A multi-data fusion deep learning model for prognostic prediction in upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is a rare but highly invasive urinary malignancy with a high postoperative recurrence rate.

We retrospectively collected data from 133 UTUC patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy between 2005 and 2017. Patients were divided into a training set (n=103) and a testing set (n=30). A multi-modal deep learning model named Multi-modal Image-Clinical Combination Classifier (MICC) was developed by integrating multi-phase contrast-enhanced CT imaging and clinical data. The model's prognostic performance was compared with two unimodal models-ImageNet (CT-based) and ClinicalNet (clinical data-based)-and traditional clinical parameters including pathological T stage. Feature importance was evaluated using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

The MICC model achieved superior prognostic accuracy with AUCs of 0.918 and 0.895 in the training and testing sets, respectively, outperforming unimodal models. Classification metrics were robust, with accuracy of 0.854, sensitivity of 0.889, specificity of 0.836, negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.933, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.744. Precision-recall analysis confirmed strong identification of high-risk patients despite dataset imbalance. SHAP analysis highlighted that CT imaging features contributed most significantly to the model's predictions.

Integrating multi-phase CT imaging with clinical data, the MICC model provides accurate prognostic prediction for UTUC patients. This approach has potential to assist clinicians in personalized risk stratification and treatment planning, ultimately improving patient outcomes.