Forecasting Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in South Asia Until 2040: A Bayesian Modeling Approach

Area of Science:

• Cardiovascular epidemiology
• Public health policy
• South Asian health trends

Background:

• Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) poses a significant health burden in low- and middle-income countries, notably in South Asia.
• Understanding future ASCVD trends is vital for informing effective public health strategies and policy interventions in the region.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the future burden of ASCVD in South Asia up to the year 2040.
• To analyze projected trends in ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence and mortality.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (1990-2021) for South Asian countries.
• Employed Bayesian age-period-cohort models to project age-adjusted prevalence (aaPR) and mortality rates for IHD, stroke, and PAD in 5-year age groups (40-79 years).
• Analyzed trends using estimated annual percent change (EAPC), differentiating between overall, male, and female populations.

Main Results:

• Ischemic heart disease (IHD) prevalence is projected to increase (EAPC: 0.23%), driven by a higher increase in females (EAPC: 1.16%).
• IHD age-adjusted mortality rate is expected to decrease overall (EAPC: -0.67%) but may rise in females.
• Stroke prevalence is projected to increase slightly, while peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence is expected to rise (EAPC: 0.26%), with increased rates observed in females.

Conclusions:

• Projected increases in ischemic heart disease (IHD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence in South Asia by 2040.
• A disproportionate rise in IHD and PAD prevalence is anticipated among the female population in the region.