Forecasting Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in South Asia Until 2040: A Bayesian Modeling Approach

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) disproportionately impacts low-middle income countries, such as those in South Asia and understanding future ASCVD rates can inform public policy.

This study aimed to project the burden of ASCVD in South Asia till 2040.

Yearly ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and peripheral artery disease (PAD) counts for South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) and mid-year population were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (1990-2021) in 5-year age brackets (40-79 years) and estimated mid-year national population (2022-2040) was collected. Age-adjusted prevalence (aaPR) and mortality rate (per 100,000) were projected with Bayesian age-period-cohort models in South Asia (overall, males, and females); trends were reported as the estimated annual percent change (EAPC).

Between 2021 and 2040, the IHD aaPR in South Asia was projected to increase (2021: 9434.6 [95% CI: 9,432.1-9,437.1], 2040: 9,846.6 [95% CI: 8,800.0-10,893.3], EAPC: 0.23% [95% CI: 0.08%-0.37%]) because of increased rates among females (EAPC: 1.16%; 95% CI: 1%-1.32%). The overall IHD age-adjusted mortality rate will reduce (2021: 254.7 [95% CI: 254.3-255.1), 2040: 224.0 [95% CI: 166.5-281.6), EAPC: -0.67% [95% CI: -1.61% to 0.27%]) but may increase in females (EAPC: 1.16%; 95% CI: 1%-1.32%). Stoke aaPR in South Asia is projected to increase slightly (2021: 1,065.5 [95% CI: 1,064.7-1,066.4], 2040: 1,074.6 [95% CI: 953.7-1,195.5]). The PAD aaPR is projected to increase (2021: 1809.5 [95% CI: 1,808.5-1,810.6], 2040: 1,879.5 [95% CI: 1,684.9-2,074.0], EAPC: 0.26% [95% CI: 0.04%-0.47%]) because of increased rates in females (EAPC: 0.29%; 95% CI: -0.01% to 0.59%).

IHD and PAD prevalence rates are projected to increase in South Asia with a disproportionate increase among females.