Development of a Modifiable Fall Risk Score for evaluating changes in fall risk over time.

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Estimating fall risk is crucial for fall prevention programs.
• Existing methods use static characteristics, limiting sensitivity to changes from interventions.
• A new Modifiable Fall Risk Score (MFRS) is developed to address this gap.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and evaluate a Modifiable Fall Risk Score (MFRS).
• To predict one-year fall risk and changes in risk over time using modifiable predictors.
• To improve fall risk assessment for community-based and clinical settings.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS).
• Included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65+ with at least two years of fall history and risk factor data.
• Developed MFRS to predict one-year fall risk.

Main Results:

• The MFRS accurately identified non-fallers (sensitivity=0.895) and fallers (positive predictive value=0.576).
• Functional changes impact fall risk independently of fall history.
• Age was not a significant predictor, emphasizing the importance of functional assessment.

Conclusions:

• The MFRS is suitable for estimating one-year fall risk and its changes.
• Objective functional tests are vital for accurate fall risk estimation.
• The MFRS and its thresholds can aid in fall risk screening.