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Development of a Modifiable Fall Risk Score for evaluating changes in fall risk over time.
Nicholas R Lamoureux1, Philip M Dixon2, Brian C Helsel3
1University of Nebraska Kearney, Kearney, Nebraska, USA lamoureuxn@unk.edu.
Summary
This study introduces a new Modifiable Fall Risk Score (MFRS) to predict one-year fall risk and changes over time. The MFRS focuses on modifiable factors, offering a dynamic approach to fall prevention for older adults.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Public Health
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Estimating fall risk is crucial for fall prevention programs.
- Existing methods use static characteristics, limiting sensitivity to changes from interventions.
- A new Modifiable Fall Risk Score (MFRS) is developed to address this gap.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and evaluate a Modifiable Fall Risk Score (MFRS).
- To predict one-year fall risk and changes in risk over time using modifiable predictors.
- To improve fall risk assessment for community-based and clinical settings.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS).
- Included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65+ with at least two years of fall history and risk factor data.
- Developed MFRS to predict one-year fall risk.
Main Results:
- The MFRS accurately identified non-fallers (sensitivity=0.895) and fallers (positive predictive value=0.576).
- Functional changes impact fall risk independently of fall history.
- Age was not a significant predictor, emphasizing the importance of functional assessment.
Conclusions:
- The MFRS is suitable for estimating one-year fall risk and its changes.
- Objective functional tests are vital for accurate fall risk estimation.
- The MFRS and its thresholds can aid in fall risk screening.
