Integrating biological mechanisms and identifying key climate refugia to enhance biodiversity climate change...

As global climate change accelerates, it is imperative to obtain a more accurate understanding of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and identify climate refugia to guide effective protection. This study utilized the endangered Tragopan caboti as a model organism. A species distribution model was constructed via a holistic approach that incorporated various biological mechanisms, including local adaptation, dispersal, responses to environmental variation, and species interactions. We considered future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) conditions (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) and identified three types of refugia (stable refugia, transitional refugia, and potential refugia). Our research shows that: (1) Models that factored in biological mechanisms demonstrated enhanced predictive accuracy. (2) Future scenario predictions indicate a substantial reduction (8.82 %-62.42 %) in Tragopan caboti habitat, with even less (3.76 %-22.23 %) habitat available due to dispersal. (3) The two subspecies of Tragopan caboti exhibit divergent responses to climate change: Tragopan caboti caboti is particularly sensitive to climate change and is undergoing a significant habitat loss, while Tragopan caboti guangxiensis is anticipated to acquire new suitable habitats. (4) Protective actions, tailored to the characteristics of each type of refugia, include habitat preservation for stable refugia, facilitation of species dispersal for transitional refugia, and reduction of dispersal barriers for potential refugia. The research underscores the pressing need to adopt species distribution models grounded in biological mechanisms and to identify and protect climate refugia, thereby establishing a scientific basis for informed and efficacious conservation efforts to adapt climate change.