Importance of phenomena expected to modify population trends of a threatened saltmarsh breeding bird community

Salt marshes in the northeastern United States support several specialized breeding bird species that are threatened by sea level rise (SLR) and coastal development, processes that drive habitat change and fragmentation. There have been rapid, widespread declines in some species, but mechanisms driving population change and whether declines continue remain unclear. We examined the influence of phenomena expected to modify salt marshes, including SLR, sediment delivery rates, and land use, on the population trajectories of saltmarsh breeding birds. We modeled population trajectories of 5 species with spatially extensive point count surveys conducted from Maine to Virginia from 2011 to 2022. We used Bayesian hierarchical abundance models and model selection to identify phenomena that had the strongest effect on population change. Clapper rails (Rallus crepitans) continued their long-term decline (-4.1%/year). Willets (Tringa semipalmata semipalmata) (2.6%/year) and saltmarsh sparrows (Ammospiza caudacuta) (4.1%/year) increased, and seaside (Ammospiza maritima) and Nelson's (Ammospiza nelsoni subvirgatus) sparrows exhibited no clear change in abundance. The estimated increase for saltmarsh sparrow was not consistent with trends over the previous 25 years but aligned with prior demographic modeling, which predicted a short-term stabilization during the study years before an expected return to a long-term decline. Road density and other tidal restrictions near marshes were generally good predictors of abundance over the study period, as was marsh habitat composition. Local rates of SLR and sediment delivery were not as good predictors. During periods of relatively low rates of realized SLR, local-scale drivers of population trends had relatively stronger effects than global drivers on the persistence of several saltmarsh breeding birds. Conservation practitioners, however, should be attentive to global drivers, especially as rates of SLR accelerate in the future.