Partisan Influence on Policy Preferences in Retrenching the Welfare State

Area of Science:

• Political Science
• Public Policy
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Citizens typically support welfare policies, yet parties enacting welfare state reforms often face minimal electoral consequences.
• Understanding voter response to welfare retrenchment is crucial for political accountability and policy analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how voters' policy preferences shift in response to welfare reforms initiated by their preferred political parties.
• To examine the electoral consequences of welfare state retrenchment in Finland.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing a natural quasi-experiment design with two structural reforms in Finland.
• Employing a two-wave panel survey conducted before and after the government's policy changes.
• Analyzing shifts in voter policy preferences, considering ideology and economic self-interest.

Main Results:

• Government voters significantly increased their support for both welfare retrenchment and increased social spending reforms.
• Voter preference shifts were more pronounced among government supporters compared to opposition supporters.
• The observed shifts in policy preferences were independent of voters' underlying ideology and economic self-interest.

Conclusions:

• Voters' policy preferences demonstrate dynamic adaptability, aligning with their party's policy direction.
• This adaptability can diminish the extent to which parties are held accountable for welfare state reforms.
• Findings challenge traditional assumptions about voter consistency in policy preferences regarding welfare state policies.