[Cancers of the rectum: predictive factors in locoregional recurrence. Multifactorial study]

Local recurrences (LR) after curative surgery have been analyzed in series of 173 rectal adenocarcinomas treated between 1973 and 1983. LR predictive factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate (Cox model) studies. Five factors had no predictive value on LR: age, sex, tumor differentiation, tumor size, and number of metastatic nodes. Five factors had a predictive value on LR: severe clinical symptoms (fixation, obstruction and perforation) (p = 0.03), tumors localized within five cm of the anal verge (p less than 0.001), intramural infiltration (p = 0.09), localization of positive nodes (p = 0.02), and tumor emboli inside the vessels (p less than 0.01). The multivariate study underlined the two main predictive factors: the tumor site within 5 cm of the anal verge (p less than 0.001) and involvement of the serosa (p = 0.05). An equation of LR risk is presented and four subgroups of different LR risk patients are defined. This study might provide guidelines for indications and evaluation of major adjuvant treatments in the highest LR risk patients.