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Digital transformation in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Yee Van Fan1, Charlie Wilson1,2, Marina Andrijevic2

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Digital transformation reshapes society and economies, impacting climate and sustainable development. Projections show a persistent digital divide, with up to 45% in low-digitalization countries by mid-century.

Keywords:
Scientific communitySocial sciences

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Area of Science:

  • Socio-economics
  • Climate Science
  • Information Technology

Background:

  • Digital transformation profoundly influences societal and economic activities.
  • Its impact on sustainable development and climate challenges is significant, with both positive and negative implications.
  • The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework is widely used in global climate research.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project future digital transformation within the SSPs by integrating statistical models.
  • To enhance the SSPs framework with contextual richness regarding digital technology adoption.
  • To enable quantitative assessment of digitalization's impact on energy, emissions, climate policy, and Sustainable Development Goals.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized statistical models calibrated with historical data from 62 countries across 12 world regions.
  • Integrated digital transformation projections into the established SSP scenario framework.
  • Developed six use cases to demonstrate the application of the enhanced SSPs.

Main Results:

  • Projected a pervasive and prolonged digital divide in some scenarios.
  • Found that up to 45% of the assessed population may reside in countries with low digital transformation by mid-century.
  • Highlighted disparities in digitalization between wealthier and less wealthy nations.

Conclusions:

  • Explicitly representing digital transformation within SSPs allows for a more nuanced understanding of its global impacts.
  • The study provides a quantitative tool for assessing digitalization's role in climate and sustainability efforts.
  • Acknowledged challenges in projecting rapid digital transformation due to its dynamic nature and socioeconomic implications.