Climatic variation and risk assessment in a highly seasonal mammal

Climate change and its resulting effects on seasonality are known to alter a variety of animal behaviors including those related to foraging, phenology, and migration. Although many studies focus on the impacts of phenological changes on physiology or fitness enhancing behaviors, fewer have investigated the relationship between variation in weather and phenology on risk assessment. Fleeing from predators is an economic decision that incurs costs and benefits. As environmental conditions change, animals may face additional stressors that affect their decision to flee and influence their ability to effectively assess risk. Flight initiation distance (FID)-the distance at which animals move away from threats-is often used to study risk assessment. FID varies due to both internal and external biotic and physical factors as well as anthropogenic activities. We asked whether variation in weather and phenology is associated with risk-taking in a population of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer). As the air temperature increased marmots tolerated closer approaches, suggesting that they either perceived less risk or that their response to a threat was thermally compromised. The effect of temperature was relatively small and was largely dependent upon having a larger range in the full data set that permitted us to detect it. We found no effects of either the date that snow disappeared or July precipitation on marmot FID. As global temperatures continue to rise, rainfall varies more and drought becomes more common, understanding climate-related changes in how animals assess risk should be used to inform population viability models.