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PSOA-LSTM: a hybrid attention-based LSTM model optimized by particle swarm optimization for accurate lung cancer
Nannan Xu1, Guang Yang2, Linlin Ming3
1Qiqihar First Hospital/Qiqihar Hospital Affiliated to Southern Medical University, Clinical Laboratory, Qiqihar, China.
Background:
Accurate forecasting of lung cancer incidence is crucial for early prevention, effective medical resource allocation, and evidence-based policymaking.
Objective:
This study proposes a novel deep learning framework-PSOA-LSTM-that integrates Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with an attention-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to enhance the precision of lung cancer incidence prediction.
Methods:
Using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) dataset, the model predicts age- and gender-specific lung cancer incidence trends for the next 5 years. The proposed model was compared against traditional models including ARIMA, standard LSTM, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest (RF).
Results:
The PSOA-LSTM model achieved superior performance across five key evaluation metrics: mean squared error (MSE) = 0.023, coefficient of determination (R 2) = 0.97, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.152, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) = 0.025, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 0.38%. Visualization results across 12 age groups and both genders further validated the model's ability to capture temporal trends and reduce prediction error, demonstrating enhanced generalization and robustness.
Conclusion:
The proposed PSOA-LSTM model outperforms benchmark models in predicting lung cancer incidence across demographic segments, offering a reliable decision-support tool for public health surveillance, early warning systems, and health policy formulation.

