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Seasonal Variation in Public Interest in Gout: Longitudinal Infodemiology Study Using Google Trends (2014-2024).

Naomi Schlesinger1, Ioannis P Androulakis2

  • 1Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Spencer Fox Eccles School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States.

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Online searches for gout show clear seasonal patterns globally, mirroring flare activity. This infodemiology approach complements traditional methods for public health insights.

Keywords:
Google Trendsgoutinfodemiologypublic healthsearch behaviorseasonal variationseasonality

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infodemiology
  • Digital Health

Background:

  • Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis globally, exhibiting seasonal flare variations.
  • Traditional epidemiological methods offer insights but lack real-time resolution.
  • Online search behavior provides a scalable, timely complement to capture disease activity trends.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate seasonal variations in public interest for gout using Google search queries.
  • To analyze these variations across countries, US states, and metropolitan areas.
  • To assess the impact of symptom- and language-specific search terms and explore bimodal patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Google Trends data for gout-related queries from 2014-2024 across 70 countries, US states, and cities.
  • Included generic, symptom-specific, and translated queries in 14 languages.
  • Applied cosinor modeling for seasonality assessment and compared 12- and 6-month harmonics for bimodal patterns, with statistical corrections (FDR, Bonferroni).

Main Results:

  • Significant seasonal variation in gout-related search interest was found across diverse geographic and linguistic categories.
  • Peaks generally occurred in late spring/early summer (Northern Hemisphere) and shifted seasonally in the Southern Hemisphere.
  • Bimodal patterns were identified for specific terms like "obesity" and "swollen big toe," indicating complex cyclic interest.

Conclusions:

  • Google search activity reflects gout flare seasonality, validating infodemiology as a population-scale surveillance tool.
  • This approach can anticipate care needs and guide digital health strategies for seasonal conditions.
  • Geographic, climatic, and linguistic contexts are crucial for interpreting these digital trend data.