Epidemiology models explain rumour spreading during France's Great Fear of 1789

Area of Science:

• Historical analysis
• Epidemiological modeling
• Social network analysis

Background:

• The Great Fear of 1789 was a period of rural panic and unrest during the French Revolution.
• It marked the collapse of feudalism and the rise of a new regime.
• The event exemplifies how rumor transmission can drive significant political change.

Purpose of the Study:

• To reconstruct the transmission network of the Great Fear using historical records.
• To quantify the spatiotemporal spread and epidemiological parameters of the rumors.
• To identify factors influencing the diffusion of the Great Fear.

Main Methods:

• Collected historical records of the Great Fear.
• Applied epidemiological tools and models to analyze rumor transmission.
• Utilized 18th-century French road network data to model diffusion paths.
• Incorporated socio-economic, demographic, and institutional data into network analysis.

Main Results:

• Quantified the spatiotemporal spread of rumors during the Great Fear.
• Estimated key epidemiological parameters, including the basic reproduction number.
• Identified probable diffusion paths and spreading velocities based on road networks.
• Determined factors associated with the spread, such as literacy, population, and wheat prices.

Conclusions:

• The study provides a quantitative analysis of the Great Fear's diffusion.
• It sheds light on the significance of the Great Fear for the French Revolution.
• Offers insights into the debate between emotional and rational drivers of historical events.