Spatial Risk Distribution of Lumpy Skin Disease in Thailand Based on Maximum-Entropy Modeling

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) poses a significant transboundary threat to livestock health and productivity, especially in regions where vector-borne transmission is a major driver of spread. Environmental and climatic factors are recognized as critical determinants of LSD transmission dynamics. This study aimed to model the environmental suitability for LSD across Thailand using a maximum-entropy approach. Outbreak data from 2021 to 2023 were analyzed alongside bioclimatic variables, land cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and cattle population density. The model produced an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.699 (~0.70), indicating moderate predictive performance. Based on variable contribution, land cover (65%), cattle density (25%), and NDVI (3%) were identified as the most influential predictors of environmental suitability for LSD. The resulting risk map identified central and northeastern Thailand as the most suitable regions for disease occurrence. These findings provide valuable insights to support risk-based surveillance, improve veterinary resource allocation, and enhance early warning systems for effective LSD prevention and control in Thailand.