Prediction of Breast Cancer Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy with Machine Learning: A Clinical, MRI-Qualitative, and...

Pathological complete response (pCR) serves as a prognostic surrogate endpoint for long-term clinical outcomes in breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NAST). This study aims to develop and evaluate machine learning-based biomarkers for predicting pCR and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

This retrospective monocentric study included 235 women (mean age 46 ± 11 years) with non-metastatic breast cancer treated with NAST. We developed various machine learning models using clinical features (age, genetic mutations, TNM stage, hormonal receptor expression, HER2 status, and histological grade), along with morphological features (size, T2 signal, and surrounding edema) and radiomics data extracted from pre-treatment MRI. Patients were divided into training and test groups with different MRI models. A customized machine learning pipeline was implemented to handle these diverse data types, consisting of feature selection and classification components.

The models demonstrated superior prediction ability using radiomics features, with the best model achieving an AUC of 0.72. Subgroup analysis revealed optimal performance in triple-negative breast cancer (AUC of 0.80) and HER2-positive subgroups (AUC of 0.65).

Machine learning models incorporating clinical, qualitative, and radiomics data from pre-treatment MRI can effectively predict pCR in breast cancer patients receiving NAST, particularly among triple-negative and HER2-positive breast cancer subgroups.