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An epidemiological application of Popper's method.

D L Weed

    Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
    |December 1, 1985
    PubMed
    Summary

    A new theory explains the healthy worker effect by proposing that selection for prevalent chronic disease influences mortality rates. This occupational health study found that employed workers

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    Area of Science:

    • Occupational health
    • Epidemiology
    • Biostatistics

    Background:

    • Occupational studies often observe mortality deficits in employed populations compared to the general population.
    • The 'healthy worker effect' is a well-documented phenomenon, but its underlying mechanisms require further explanation.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To propose and test a novel theory for the healthy worker effect.
    • To explain mortality deficits in occupational studies using a logicodeductive approach.

    Main Methods:

    • Application of the logicodeductive method of science.
    • Analysis of mortality data from a large population of 338,306 white communications workers.
    • Regression techniques fitting mortality curves to Weibull functions.

    Main Results:

    • A new theory for the healthy worker effect, based on selection for prevalent chronic disease, was proposed and empirically tested.
    • The theory successfully predicted divergence in mortality rates between employed workers and the general population as age increases.
    • Predictions regarding the decrease in the healthy worker effect with increased duration of service and cause-specific magnitudes were also successful.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed theory provides a robust explanation for the healthy worker effect, supported by empirical data.
    • The theory meets criteria for scientific explanation, including making precise and novel predictions.
    • This research advances understanding of occupational mortality and selection biases.

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