Assessing Public Health Capacity for Infectious Disease Modeling: A Qualitative Study of State and Local Agencies

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting tools are crucial for outbreak management. However, variability exists in the capacity of state and local health departments to effectively utilize these tools, influenced by factors such as infrastructure, funding, staff capacity, and data access. This study aims to identify the current priorities, needs, and capacities of state and local public health departments regarding infectious disease modeling and forecasting tools. Key informant interviews were conducted with epidemiologists, informaticists, and leadership across state and local health departments from Montana, Utah, and Washington. Thematic coding and axial coding were used for thematic analysis. Three themes emerged: (1) models and tools must be adaptable based on the jurisdiction type (rural, urban, state); (2) building trust in models and tools is an important precursor to adoption; and (3) there are concerns about the availability and quality of data. This study highlights the need for adaptable modeling tools that are tailored to specific public health jurisdictions. Building trust in modeling and forecasting tools and addressing data quality issues are essential for successful tool implementation and adoption across diverse public health settings.