Real-Time Integrative Mapping of the Phenology and Climatic Suitability for the Spotted Lanternfly, Lycorma...

We present a model that integrates the mapping of the phenology and climatic suitability for the spotted lanternfly (SLF), Lycorma delicatula (White, 1845) (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae), to provide guidance on when and where to conduct surveillance and management of this highly invasive pest. The model was designed for use in the Degree-Day, Establishment Risk, and Phenological Event Maps (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help to detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats. We validated the model using presence records and phenological observations derived from monitoring studies and the iNaturalist database. The model performed well, with more than >99.9% of the presence records included in the potential distribution for North America, a large proportion of the iNaturalist observations correctly predicted, and a low error rate for dates of the first appearance of adults. Cold and heat stresses were insufficient to exclude the SLF from most areas of the conterminous United States (CONUS), but an inability for the pest to complete its life cycle in cold areas may hinder establishment. The appearance of adults occurred several months earlier in warmer regions of North America and Europe, which suggests that host plants in these areas may experience stronger feeding pressure. The near-real-time forecasts produced by the model are available at USPest.org and the USA National Phenology Network to support decision making for the CONUS. Forecasts of egg hatch and the appearance of adults are particularly relevant for surveillance to prevent new establishments and for managing existing populations.