Causal Inference of Adverse Drug Events in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: A Pharmacovigilance Study

Objective: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a progressive and life-threatening disease. Adverse events (AEs) related to its drug treatment seriously damaged the patient's health. This study aims to clarify the causal relationship between PAH drugs and these AEs by combining pharmacovigilance signal detection with the Bayesian causal network model. Methods: Patient data were obtained from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), covering reports from 2013 to 2023. In accordance with standard pharmacovigilance methodologies, disproportionality analysis was performed to detect signals. Target drugs were selected based on the following criteria: number of reports (a) ≥ 3, proportional reporting ratio (PRR) ≥ 2, and chi-square (χ²) ≥ 4. Bayesian causal network models were then constructed to estimate causal relationships. The do-calculus and adjustment formula were applied to calculate the causal effects between drugs and AEs. Results: Signal detection revealed that Ambrisentan, Bosentan, and Iloprost were associated with serious AEs, including death, dyspnea, pneumonia, and edema. For Ambrisentan, the top-ranked adverse drug events (ADEs) based on average causal effect (ACE) were peripheral swelling (ACE = 0.032) and anemia (ACE = 0.021). For Iloprost, the most prominent ADE was hyperthyroidism (ACE = 0.048). Conclusions: This study quantifies causal drug-event relationships in PAH using Bayesian causal networks. The findings offer valuable evidence regarding the clinical safety of PAH medications, thereby improving patient health outcomes.