The Clinical and Laboratory Predictors of Intensive Care Unit Admission in Romanian Measles Cases: A Retrospective...

Background and Objectives: Romania has experienced the highest measles incidence rate in the European Union since late 2023, driven by suboptimal measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) uptake. Contemporary data on bedside predictors of clinical deterioration are scarce. The objective was to characterise demographic, clinical and laboratory differences between severe and non-severe measles and derive a multivariable model for intensive-care-unit (ICU) admission. Methods: We undertook a retrospective cohort study at the "Victor Babeș" University Hospital for Infectious Diseases, Timișoara. All admissions from 1 November 2023 to 15 May 2025 with serological or RT-PCR confirmation and a complete baseline laboratory panel were included. Descriptive statistics compared ward-managed versus ICU-managed patients; independent predictors of ICU transfer were identified through logistic regression that incorporated age, vaccination status, leukocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Results: Among 455 patients (median age 3.0 y, interquartile range [IQR] 1.0-7.0), 17 (3.7%) required ICU care. Vaccine coverage was 18.0% overall and 0% among ICU cases. Compared with ward peers, ICU patients exhibited higher leukocyte counts (8.1 × 10⁹ L vs. 6.0 × 10⁹ L; p = 0.003) and a near-five-fold elevation in IL-6 (18 pg mL vs. 4 pg mL; p < 0.001), while CRP, procalcitonin and fibrinogen were similar. ICU admission prolonged median length of stay from 5 days (IQR 4-7) to 8 days (5-12; p = 0.004). In multivariable modelling, IL-6 remained the sole independent predictor (odds ratio [OR] 1.07 per pg mL; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.12; p = 0.001); the model's AUC was 0.83, indicating good discrimination. Complete separation precluded reliable estimation of the protective effect of vaccination, but no vaccinated child required ICU care. Conclusions: A simple admission panel centred on IL-6 accurately identified Romanian measles patients at risk of critical deterioration, whereas traditional markers such as CRP and leukocyte count added little incremental value. Even a single documented MMR dose was associated with the complete absence of ICU transfers, underscoring the urgent need for catch-up immunisation campaigns. Integrating IL-6-guided triage with intensified vaccination outreach could substantially reduce measles-related morbidity and health-system strain in low-coverage EU settings.